I found the following information in the Microsoft website regadring replication over the firewall which asked me to configure the firewall to permit the following,<BR><BR>Service Port/protocol ...

I never tried this but, if I where in your shoes, I'd pull a copy of Wireshark, instruct it to use the SSL dissector on TCP 636 and have a look at a packet dump: if you're looking at an SSL failure, ...